CariCOF Caribbean Climate Outlooks: May 2024

Written on 05/01/2024

The CariCOF Climate Outlooks for May to July 2024 are now available. These include:

Summary for the upcoming 3-month period, May to July 2024: “A return to normal ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific and a (near-)record warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean are forecast. Therefore, the region enters an intense Heat Season with recurrent heatwaves, and a possibly early start to an intense wet season. Shower intensity and frequency are likely to sharply rise, resulting in high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts in most places, except the ABC Islands. Unknown is how frequent incursions of dry, dust-laden Saharan air into the Caribbean will be. If very frequent, the period will further be characterised by erratic shower activity — but frequent dry spells — and further buildup of ongoing drought, increasing heat and wildfire potential in May.”