Robert L. Bradshaw International Airport
St. Kitts Meteorological Services
St. Christopher Air & Sea Port Authority
P.O. Box 963
Basseterre
St. Kitts

Tel: 869 465 2749 Tele- fax: 869 465 9122

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
WHCA31 TAPA
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
855 AM ECT TUE, JUL 28, 2020

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS…A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT…

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN OUR MONITORED AREA BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT CURRENTLY REQUIRED.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE IMPACTS, AT THIS TIME. NOTWITHSTANDING, AL92 IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS, AT LEAST, A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THEREFORE, IT POSES A MODERATE THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS, ELEVATED STORM SURGE, EXTREME SEAS, MODERATE FLOODING AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES, RESULTING IN LIFETHREATENING CONDITIONS, DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE AND SOME DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN.

AT 8 AM LST OR 1200 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 50.0 WEST OR ABOUT 816 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OR ABOUT 1015 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS; APPROXIMATELY 873 MILES SOUTH EAST OF ST.KITTS AND NEVIS.

THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST TO WESTNORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, DATA FROM NOAA BUOY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE STRENGTH. THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 30 MPH HOWEVER THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT OR HIGH CHANCE OF IT BECOMING ONE.

ON ITS PROJECTED FORECAST TRACK, AL92 COULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY AS A DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH HIGH CERTAINTY THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE SYSTEM, THE WIND INTENSITY ON ARRIVAL AND POSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL92 AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE PLANS IN THE EVENT THAT THE THREAT LEVEL FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE AT 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON.