Robert L. Bradshaw International Airport
St. Kitts Meteorological Services
St. Christopher Air & Sea Port Authority
P.O. Box 963
Basseterre
St. Kitts

Tel: 869 465 2749 Tele- fax: 869 465 9122

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INFORMATION STATEMENT

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
8:45 PM ECT SUN AUG 8 2021

…DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE AREA…

THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94, WHICH HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 24-HOURS AND IMPACT THE LEEWARD AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

GIVEN THE VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER AL94 WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA AND EVEN HIGHER UNCERTAINTIES OF THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND SIZE, IF IT WERE TO DEVELOP INTO A STORM, IT IS STILL IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT EXACTLY WILL BECOME OF THIS SYSTEM, AT THIS TIME. NOTWITHSTANDING, AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE, DISTURBANCE AL94 POSES LITTLE THREAT, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE QUICKLY AND REQUIRE QUICK ACTION BY RESIDENTS TO PROTECT LIFE PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD.

AT 8 PM ECT OR 0000 UTC, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 530 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BRINGING THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM NOW HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TUESDAY AND A 60 PERCENT CHANCE BY FRIDAY.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL MOST LIKELY AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO A TROPICAL STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHILE THE DISTURBANCE IS OVER OR NEAR THE ISLANDS.

PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, AT THIS TIME, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL REQUIRE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT BE ISSUED.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 CLOSELY AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED, IN THE EVENT THAT QUICK ACTION IS REQUIRED TO SAFEGUARD LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD.

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 9 AM TOMORROW OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.

FORECASTER DALE DESTIN