Robert L. Bradshaw International Airport
St. Kitts Meteorological Services
St. Christopher Air & Sea Port Authority
P.O. Box 963
Basseterre
St. Kitts

Tel: 869 465 2749 Tele- fax: 869 465 9122

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
7:10 PM ECT TUESDAY SEP 26 2023

…TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE COULD PASS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS…
…TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91 TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND PASS NEAR THE AREA…

THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE (FEE-LEEP) AND TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91

TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE

CONFIDENCE IS NOW RELATIVELY LOW ON THE EVENTUAL PATH OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE.

THE SYSTEM COULD NOW PASS MUCH CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS THAN INITIALLY FORECAST; HOWEVER, STILL AT A SAFE DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. STILL, AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM POSES LITTLE TO NO WIND THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MODERATE THREAT OF ABOVE-NORMAL SWELLS, WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AND LIFE-THREATENING NEARSHORE CONDITIONS.

AT 5 PM ECT OR 2100 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST OR ABOUT 686 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL TRACKS, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS; HOWEVER, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH ANY OF THE ISLANDS.

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, AN ALERT IS POSSIBLE, IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO TRACK MORE WEST THAN NORTH AND SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING, WATCHES AND WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91 IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS. THERE IS NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME TRACKS BRINGING IT NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE SCENARIO, THE EXPECTED
TROPICAL CYCLONE POSES LITTLE TO NO THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 5 PM ECT OR 2100 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1631 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS AND A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION IN SEVEN DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM RINA (REENUH) BASED ON THE FORECAST MODEL TRACKS, THE CENTRE OF WHAT IS LIKE TO BE RINA COULD BE NEAR THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAZARDS, IF ANY, ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AT THIS TIME.

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT, AT THIS TIME; HOWEVER, EITHER THIS SYSTEM OR PHILIPPE COULD TRIGGER ONE OR MORE IN THE COMING DAYS.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE AND TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL91. ALL ARE ALSO STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO STAY PREPARED FOR THE REST OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE GIVEN BY 5 PM TOMORROW, OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.

FORECASTER DALE DESTIN