Robert L. Bradshaw International Airport
St. Kitts Meteorological Services
St. Christopher Air & Sea Port Authority
P.O. Box 963
Basseterre
St. Kitts

Tel: 869 465 2749 Tele- fax: 869 465 9122

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE
10:00 AM ECT SATURDAY AUGUST 10 2024

TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD AFFECT THE AREA…

THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE CONTINUES TO MONITOR ACTIVELY THE PROGRESS OF AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE, WHICH HAS BECOME TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL98, OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER AND COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS NEXT WEEK TUESDAY.

THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM IN SEVEN DAYS NEAR OR AFTER PASSING THE AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW FORMATION CHANCE IN 48 HOURS AND THE LONG DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS, AT THIS TIME, THE THREAT LEVEL, FROM AL98 REMAINS LITTLE FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE RISK OF WIND, RAINFALL OR SEAS IS LOW, SO NO ACTION IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN MONITORING.

AT 8 AM ECT OR 1200 UTC, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL98 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1491 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT AROUND 15 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LESS THAN 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM COULD FORM IN SEVEN DAYS. FORMATION COULD TAKE PLACE NEAR THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION IN 48 HOURS AND AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF FORMATION IN SEVEN DAYS.

NO PARTICULAR HAZARD IS BEING FORECAST AT THIS TIME AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL VERY FAR AWAY WITH LOTS OF ROOM FOR A NUMBER OF SCENARIOS TO PLAY OUT. ALSO, THE UNCERTAINTIES ARE QUITE HIGH FOR WHAT WILL HAPPEN. PLEASE NOTE THAT NO ALERTS, WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA; HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE IN 48 HOURS, A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY AND ENSURE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS ARE PREPARED.

THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT, OR SOONER IF REQUIRED.

FORECASTER DALE DESTIN