The CariCOF Climate Outlooks for April to June 2026 are now available. These include:

• Flash Flood Potential Outlook (Experimental)
• Temperature Outlook Maps
• Precipitation Outlook Maps
• Wet Days & Wet Spells Outlook
• Drought Outlook
• Dry Spells Outlook and
• The Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter

The following excerpt from CariCOF’s Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter summarizes the climate conditions and related hazards for the upcoming 3-month period April to June 2026:

ENSO conditions in the Pacific are forecast to transition to neutral or El Niño by June. This, combined with unusually warm waters around and north of the Caribbean, but seasonably warm waters in around the southern reaches imply:

(i) a Caribbean Heat Season with heatwaves occurring as early as April and gradually ramping up, possibly matching AMJ 2024 in the northwest of the region;

(ii) high evaporation rates, frequent short dry spells and buildup of any ongoing drought, thus increasing wildfire potential through May or longer;

(iii) except for the ABC Islands, rainfall intensity should rise towards June, resulting in high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts. Episodes of Saharan dust intrusion will likely be frequent; if combined with El Niño, this means more build up of dryness and heat, as well as more erratic occurrence of severe weather.